AFL Preview: Round 12

afl picks round 12

The first of three bye rounds in the AFL is upon us, meaning we’ve got a smaller three-game slate on Saturday and just the one game on Sunday for Round 12. AFL Saturday is headlined by the lone night match that will see the Crows host the Giants at Adelaide Oval, while the Sunday clash will see the Swans host the Eagles at the SCG. 

There are some great daily fantasy tournaments on offer at PlayON over the weekend for the Round 12 slate. Keep an eye in the lobby for details of those contests. We have our best daily fantasy tips for the both Saturday and Sunday below. 

Guns for hire

Saturday – Lachie Neale ($15.8m)

We kick things off with a forgotten hero of 2019 AFL Fantasy in Brisbane’s Lachie Neale. He started the season absolutely on fire with three 130+ scores from his first four games in a Lions jumper but has since slowed up quite a bit with an average of 93 over his past five games. He may be on a lean streak coming into this weekend, but Neale is far too good of a player to keep down for long.

So why get on a player that’s playing below his best? Well, because he’s playing against Carlton, who have given up the second most points to opposition midfielders this season. They are yet to keep the opposition’s star midfielder under 100 fantasy points when they’ve opted to tag (Rockliff 115 R2, Merrett 102 R11). Further, Neale averaged 113 in his two games vs Carlton last season, which was 13 points higher than his season average.

Sunday – Elliot Yeo ($15.4m)

Looking at the lone Sunday game we believe the biggest must-have comes in the form of Elliot Yeo. He sometimes flies under the radar a little bit because of all the great top-end quality the Eagles have with the likes of Gaff, Shuey, Hurn etc. However, Elliot Yeo can score with the best of them. He’s averaging 101 for the season and has shown us time and time again that he’s got a huge ceiling. In 2019, Yeo has already had three games of 130+, including a monster 146 against the Suns in Round 7.

The Eagles have a solid match-up on Sunday against a leaky Swans midfield, although the smaller SCG might make it a bit harder for outside players like Andrew Gaff to generate a big score. On the other hand, we’ve got Elliot Yeo who scored a monster 136 against the Swans at the SCG last season, as well as a 104 against them in Perth. All signs lead to him being a really good pick here.

Duds to avoid

Saturday – Rory Laird ($14.3m)

The word ‘dud’ doesn’t really fit the bill when we’re talking about Rory Laird. However, we do see him having a quieter game on Saturday, thus making him an important fade for our fantasy teams. Laird had a monster 2018 season in fantasy, where he averaged 108 points per game and had a whopping 7x 120+ scores from his 20 appearances. However, this year his average has dropped by 10 down to 98 points per contest, and he’s yet to hit 120 points in any of his 11 matches. His highest score this season is 115 against North Melbourne in Round 4.

While we appreciate that an average of 98 is by no means poor, we expect Saturday to be one of his quieter days due to who he’s coming up against. The Giants have conceded the least points to opposition defenders this season (avg 58 per player) and are only getting stingier over their past five games (avg 55 per player). All things considered, we recommend spending a big chunk of your salary elsewhere on Saturday.

Sunday – Jack Darling ($10.2m)

Although he’s coming off his best game of the season, we’re actually looking to fade Jack Darling this weekend. He absolutely bullied the Bulldogs defence with a six-goal haul last weekend – easily his best performance this year. However, it’s been well documented that Darling plays far better at home than he does on the road and we expect Sunday to be another prime example of that.

This weekend Darling comes up against a Swans outfit that has given up the fifth least points to opposition forwards this season (avg 60 per player) and the second least over the past five games (average 56 per player).  Darling has already had three scores below 35 this season and we expect to see something similar to that on Sunday.

Points of difference 

Saturday – Trent Dumont ($13.7m)

Someone who’s really flown under the radar this season is North Melbourne’s Trent Dumont. Not yet a household name, but if 23-year-old Dumont continues on this upward trend, then he sure will be soon enough. In terms of fantasy, Dumont is averaging a really nice 98 this season, up from 82 in 2018. Also, if you factor in the last four games he played in 2018, Dumont has had 10 scores of 98+ over his last 14 games.

Why get him in this week? Dumont comes up against a really leaky Suns midfield that will definitely not be targeting him for a tag. Expect him to run around Metricon Stadium by himself all afternoon and post a score of 100+ with low ownership.

Sunday – Jack Redden ($13.5m)

A player we recommend considering for your Saturday line-ups at PlayON is Eagles midfielder Jack Redden. Like Yeo, but probably even more so than him, Redden is overshadowed by all the star midfielders that West Coast possess. He definitely doesn’t get enough credit for someone who has averaged 90+ fantasy points in five of his last seven seasons. While we can also appreciate that he’s inconsistent at the best of times, Redden has a huge ceiling, highlighted by his 4x 130+ scores last season and already 3x 120+ scores this season.

Redden is also a player that loves the congested side of the game and will flourish on the smaller field of the SCG. We expect him to be of really low ownership on Sunday, which makes him a great POD with tremendous upside.

 

That’s all for our Round 12 Preview. We’ll see you back here next week – but first we hope to see you at the top of PlayON’s Leaderboards. Head to the Lobby now to pick your teams and play for a share of guaranteed cash prizes.

Good luck!

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