Premier League Picks and Preview: Gameweek 38

Daily Fantasy Premier League

Here it is, the last round of the season and there’s still plenty to play for in terms of places, pride and money. There’s also plenty to play for at PlayON, with daily contests and the £5,000 SuperContest for the final round.

I’ve gone through the weekend’s games and picked out my Guns, Value Players and Point of Difference (POD) picks from a daily fantasy perspective.

Southampton v Man City

This one has ramifications at both ends of the table. A ridiculous goal fest could send Southampton down, but more realistically just the win for City takes them to 100 points for the season.

Gun

All the S’s for City – Silva (£15.6m), Sterling (£15.4m) and Sane (£13.3m). Two were rested last out but should come back and the trio have a plethora of goals and assists between them.

Value Pick

Bernardo Silva at 8.3m is a bargain compared to the guns. If he plays and it’s a big if.

POD Pick

I talked about Danilo (£6.4m) last week and he ended up playing 90 mins and scoring. Seems good enough a reason to back him in again this week and he’s currently in less than 5% of teams compared to 20% for Stones.

Burnley v Bournemouth

Burnley can’t move up or down from 7th place in this one, but Bournemouth could sneak into the top half with a win. Not great form on either side, with just one win each in their last five.

Gun

Chris Wood (£10.2m) is a man who knows how to find the net, with nine goals in an injury affected season. He missed the last round though, so make sure he’s playing before jumping on.

Value Pick

Another one I picked last week that came good was Ryan Fraser, who scored the winner against Swansea. He’s gone up to£9.8m from£9.2m, but the reasoning remains the same with an average of 1275 and a price under 10m.

POD Pick

Slightly less of a POD than I’d hoped, but 9.2% of teams have jumped on Kevin Long (£6.9m). Burnley at home are a good chance for a clean sheet and he’s been getting a good run in the side lately, bagging a goal along the way.

Crystal Palace v West Brom

Both sides in great form with three wins and two draws in an unbeaten last five in their own push for safety. The Eagles are now one of four teams on 41 points and one of six who could still finish in the top half.

Gun

Wilf Zaha (£13.3m) – another goal and two more assists in the two games he played last round. He’s almost single-handedly pulled the Eagles to safety. And somehow dropped in price from £13.4m last week. Must have.

Value Pick

Patrick van Aanholt (£8.1.m) – I known this is starting to look like a repeat of last week but you can’t knock a defender scoring back to back games. Players notice this too, with the Dutchman in nearly 20% of teams so far.

POD Pick

Ruben Loftus-Cheek (£9.1m) while not cheap, has shown his ability through the season, particularly at the start when the rest of his team were struggling. He’s come back with a goal and assist last round, but sits in under 5% of teams.

Huddersfield v Arsenal

The Terriers have done brilliantly with draws against City and Chelsea to keep themselves up and ensure all three promoted teams remain in the PL next season. Arsenal’s away woes continued, the loss to Leicester last out meaning they’re without a win away in 2018.

Gun

You just can’t look past Aubameyang (£16m) after his last week. Three goals and an assist in the two games. Massive points for your team if he goes again here (and I think he will). Pricey, but worth it.

Value Pick

Alex Iwobi gets a lot of game time for Arsenal, but is priced at only 8.9m for his 1000+ average. It’s a risk, but he did score against Burnley in round 37.

POD Pick

In just 1.5% of sides so far, Aaron Ramsey is the ultimate POD. Early to mid-season he was on fire getting most of his seven goals and nine assists in that period. A couple of niggles have interrupted the second half, but he got back to 90 minutes last game and I’m watching him for something special here.

Liverpool v Brighton

With Champions League duties taking some attention, Liverpool’s recent form in the league is patchy at best, with one win in five. Brighton lost to City last out, but beat United the game before. As well as offering the prize of top four and another season in the elite European competition, another goal for Salah sees him take the goal scoring record outright

Gun

Some of these guns must sound like a broken record from last week, but Mohamed Salah is a cut above here, his 1983 average over 600 better than anyone in this match and the best of all players. He is £17.1m though so you’ll have to pick between him and Aubameyang, who averages 1909, in an all-of-round team. If it’s just for this game, lock him in first pick.

Value Pick

If you take value as average over price, the best option in this game (of players with a chance to play) is Dejan Lovren. Whilst his average of 767 isn’t great due to minimal attacking stats, getting that average for just £6.2m is definitely value. A few defensive injuries for the Reds so he’s a good shout and if he gets a clean sheet you’re laughing at this price.

POD Pick

Although I don’t think Brighton win, the fact that Glenn Murray (£9.4m) is in less than 1.5% of teams with his goal scoring this season means he’s a definite POD option.

Man United v Watford

The two sides have played nine times at this level and United have won eight of those, with no draws and the Hornet’s one win coming at home last season. Safe to say this won’t be a draw and everything points to the Red Devils in this.

Gun

With Pogba letting me down last round, I’m looking elsewhere. Phil Jones (£8m) returned to the side last game to pick up his 15th clean sheet of the season and a 1370 average, 150 more than Pogba. At that price and average, he would fit into the Value Pick section as well, but I’m putting him in gun status with a clean sheet on the cards.

Value Pick

Ander Herrera (£6.5m) offers a 700+ average for just £6.5m. If you need cheaper players with a solid, if not great, average to afford the big guns, the Spaniard isn’t a bad option. Rewarded more for defensive duties in DFS than EPL-Fantasy, he also got the full 90 last game so hopefully starts again.

POD Pick

Roberto Pereyra (£8.7m) appears to have picked up the slack from Richarlison in the back end and grabbed a goal and assist last out. He’s in 1.5% of teams for good reason as he’s playing United away, but if he does grab a consolation goal, he sets you apart from other players.

Newcastle v Chelsea

Newcastle have lost four on the bounce and haven’t beaten Chelsea in the league since 2014. The Blues’ form is also a complete contrast, unbeaten in five and dropping points only in their last game against Huddersfield.

Gun

I think guns in a Chelsea game and I immediately look for Hazard (£15.4m), Morata (£12m) and Willian (£11.3m). All three of those average under 1000. Far too poor an average for the price.

Instead, I find myself looking at mainly Newcastle players in the top average for this game. I don’t think the Magpies win this though, so my gun pick has to be Cesc Fabregas (£9.9m) who has averaged over 1100 pulling the strings in midfield, despite only two goals and four assists. Imagine the possibility if he adds some attacking stats here!

Value Pick

Priced cheaper than all three of the Chelsea “guns” above, Ayoze Perez averages 1351 for just £10.3m. Quieter in his last couple, but probably the most likely Newcastle player to score. The last time Newcastle played at home on the last game of the EPL season they battered Spurs 5-1. It’s unlikely they cause another upset here, but if they do, Perez is involved.

POD Pick

Kante is another one featuring in less than 2% of teams. He does cost a bit more at £11m but offers you a 1100+ average and dogged work rate. Plus, imagine if he added to his solitary goal here and you missed out…

Tottenham v Leicester

Spurs win over Newcastle last out means they are guaranteed a top four finish, despite the loss to West Brom. While Tottenham’s form of late can be described as patchy, Leicester’s has just been poor, with the win over Arsenal the only one they have in their last five.

Gun

Whilst Eriksen sits atop the average list for this game, due to the more unselfish nature of his game leading to more assists, my gun pick this week is Harry Kane (£15.6m). Neither team have much to play for position wise, but Kane is an outside chance for Golden Boot. If he scores four. Which would be amazing if you have him.

Value Pick

I tipped Serge Aurier (£7.7m) last week but he couldn’t shake off the injury. In the hope he does this week I repeat my pick below:

When you look at average score to value, Serge Aurier represents most bang for your buck, no doubt helped by his propensity to bomb on and the two goals and assists he’s nabbed along the way.

POD Pick

With all the love for Kane, Eriksen and Son, Dele Alli has gone fairly unnoticed, sitting in less than 2% of sides. For someone who’s averaging over 1400, that’s low. He may be £15.4m, but someone has to set up all of Kane’s goals. Alli has set up 13 this season and scored nine of his own.

Swansea v Stoke

The other game in the “impossible” relegation swing equation sees already-relegated Stoke travel to Swansea. For me, it’s not a question of whether Swansea win, it’s about whether they can win by enough to overturn a 10 goal deficit on Southampton’s for and against.

Gun and Value Pick

I’m backing the Swans here, purely because as a neutral I want to see this relegation fight go to the wire. If Swansea re going to win, the goals will likely come from Jordan Ayew (£8.4m), who has seven this season and six in the back end. Given the genuine lack of options in this, he’s also my value pick at that price and 1220 average.

POD Pick

Tom Carroll (£7.4m) had a lot of hype around him at the start of this season that he’s failed to live up to. Can he pull one great performance out here to do the unthinkable and keep the Swans up? Only 3% of teams think so.

West Ham v Everton

Two good results in the last two for the Hammers, with a draw against United and win over Leicester, but form prior to that was poor. Everton are now unbeaten in five, with two wins and three draws. The Toffees can only finish 8th or 9th, while the Hammers, currently 15th, could go as high as 10th with a win.

Gun

After a rocky start with an early red card, Marko Arnautovic (£13.2m) is starting to look like the beast we know he is at the Hammers. Ten goals, six assists and a PlayON average of 1285. I’d take that.

Value Pick

It looks like Rooney and Calvert-Lewin may miss this one through injury, which would leave Cenk Tosun (£9.2m) to lead the line. The Turk has scored five since his January transfer and a 1300+ average is great value at under 10m.

POD Pick

Adriaan (£6.1m) has played the last three for the Hammers and kept back-to-back clean sheets, but only 3% of teams want him. He could be called on for a few saves in this, so is great value for a POD.

Good luck in the Final Day’s games!

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